CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T17:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-09-02T17:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 60 Kp Range Lower: 4-6Lead Time: 40.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2023-09-01T00:50Z
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